-
Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis
-
Mehran Rostami, Abdollah Jalilian, Behrooz Hamzeh, Zahra Laghaei
-
Epidemiol Health. 2015;37:e2015003. Published online January 22, 2015
-
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih/e2015003
-
-
17,506
View
-
213
Download
-
3
Web of Science
-
4
Crossref
-
 Abstract
 PDF
-
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration.
METHODS The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria.
RESULTS The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems.
CONCLUSIONS The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.
-
Summary
-
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by  - Predicting the detection of leprosy in a hyperendemic area of Brazil: Using time series analysis
Vera Gregório, Dinilson Pedroza, Celivane Barbosa, Gilberto Bezerra, Ulisses Montarroyos, Cristine Bonfim, Zulma Medeiros
Indian Journal of Dermatology, Venereology and Leprology.2021; 87: 651. CrossRef - Forecasting Malaysia Under-5 Mortality Using State Space Model
N F Abd Nasir, A N Muzaffar, S N E Rahmat, W Z Wan Husin, N S Zainal Abidin
Journal of Physics: Conference Series.2020; 1496: 012001. CrossRef - Multivariate Long Memory Cohort Mortality Models
Hongxuan Yan, Gareth Peters, Jennifer Chan
SSRN Electronic Journal .2018;[Epub] CrossRef - Forecast analysis of any opportunistic infection among HIV positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy in Uganda
John Rubaihayo, Nazarius M. Tumwesigye, Joseph Konde-Lule, Fredrick Makumbi
BMC Public Health.2016;[Epub] CrossRef
|
KSE
